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Kiwi soft as coronavirus fears are amplified

NZD - New Zealand Dollar

The NZD traded near year to date lows touching 0.6380 as the impacts of the coronavirus continued to press on investors fears the global economic recovery will derail. New Zealand’s economic exposure to China has fostered a sustained NZD sell off as the economic shutdown in China continues and looks set to force a correction in NZD GDP estimates.

Attentions turn to commentary from RBNZ Governor Orr for direction through Tuesday while risk sentiment and health headlines dominate broader currency flows. We expect the NZD to remain soft through the short term as sentiment is skewed to the downside. As long as the virus continues to spread and containment remains illusive a meaningful NZD upturn will be hard won.

Key Movers

The dollar advance continued through trade on Monday as demand for safe Haven assets drove direction, while US data sets provide a bullish domestic economic outlook when compared with major counterparts. Fears the coronavirus will continue to spread, hampering the global economic recovery, increased through trade on Monday as the total number of confirmed cases pushed through 40,000. The dollar index touched session highs at 98.86 as attentions turn to commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, as he testifies before the House Financial Services Committee.

The Euro fell to a four-month low through trade on Monday as investors contrast strong US domestic data against lacklustre eurozone metrics. Friday’s strong non-farm payroll print when compared with German industrial output show a stark contrast in economic health across the two economies. German Industrial output recorded its largest single month decline since the recession of 2009, while Italian output also printed below market expectations, amplifying calls for increased stimulus and QE measures. Having touched 1.0907 the single currency found short term support, opening this morning at 1.0911.

The Great British pound touched two and a half month lows on Monday before bouncing higher despite broad based US dollar strength. Having touched 1.2873 in early trade, the pound seemed set to compound last weeks 2.5% sell off as investors looked to correct positions ahead of a string of key data sets. While EU trade talks continue to dominate broader direction, Tuesdays GDP print will provide short to medium term guidance. Recent macroeconomic indicators have hinted at a slight upturn in economic momentum and affirmation will alleviate pressure on the Bank of England to cut rates in the first half of the year. Watch supports on moves below 1.29 with resistance on drives above 1.31 and approaching 1.32.

Expected Ranges

NZD/USD: 0.6330 - 0.6420 ▼

NZD/EUR: 0.5820 - 0.5880 ▲

GBP/NZD: 1.9980 - 2.0420 ▲

NZD/AUD: 0.9490 - 0.9630 ▼

NZD/CAD: 0.8480 - 0.8550 ▼