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NZD down for the week amidst disappointing ANZ business survey

NZD - New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar opened at 0.6259 this morning against the US Dollar, falling throughout yesterday’s trading day. The ANZ business survey data released yesterday morning came back less than expected at -53.5 against it’s previous result of -52.3m indicating pessimism.

Furthermore, the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research released their data earlier this morning, that also resulted in a further dip in the Kiwi. Measuring the diffusion index based on surveyed businesses, the figure came back lower against it’s previous figure again at -40, compared to -34.

Reaching it’s lowest point in about 4 years, traders are under the expectations that the RBNZ will further cut the rate in November and February with the market already priced in around a 75% chance of a cut in November.

Key Movers

The US-China trade war is getting “considerably worse” according to Ian Bremmer, the president of Eurasia Group. While any rumours that the US was considering de-listing Chinese companies have been suppressed for now, both sides don’t expect a breakthrough deal to happen until after the 2020 U.S. election. Despite this, there is a stronger push to complete bilateral deals with Japan and India.

The Brexit deadline draws steadily closer, as the world awaits how UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson will fulfill his pledge to deliver Brexit on October 31st. Facing threat of dismissal by the Queen if he fails to ask for a Brexit extension, PM Johnson is under considerable pressure to deliver a deal “come what may”. While he can request a delay by October 19, some on the opposition side fear this leaves too little time to take action through courts if he tries to circumvent legislation and push a no-deal break.

In other major market news, the CAD GDP data released tonight is expected to have a major impact on the currency. Showing the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services, it is the broadest measure of economic activity and primary gauge of the economy’s health.

Expected Ranges

NZD/AUD: 0.9185 - 0.9315 ▼

NZD/CAD: 0.8215 - 0.8320 ▼

NZD/EUR: 0.5680 - 0.5795 ▼

GBP/NZD: 1.9495 - 1.9980 ▲

NZD/USD: 0.6205 - 0.6310 ▼