Daily Currency Update

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Kiwi dollar recovers some of last week’s losses

NZD - New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand dollar is slightly stronger this morning when valued against the greenback. The NZD has been the strongest performing currency for the new week, up 0.5% to 0.6298. On the local data front there are no scheduled releases today in New Zealand. Looking ahead this week and all attentions turn to tomorrow’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest rate announcement with expectations the RBNZ will hold rates. Given the market has priced in a 25% chance of a 25 bps cut, an “on-hold” outcome might give the Kiwi dollar some short term support.

From a technical perspective, the NZD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.6292. We continue to expect support to hold on moves approaching 0.6250 while now any upward push will likely meet resistance around 0.6300.

Key Movers

Overnight the Greenback edged higher on the back of falling global shares as euro zone equities clocked their worst day in a month after dismal business activity readings in Europe deepened fears of a looming recession there. On the release front yesterday the Euro fell over 50pips, to a low of 1.0966 against the Greenback, on the back of the September preliminary Markit PMI release which came in worse-than-expected. German Manufacturing PMI came in at 41.4 while the Services PMI came in at 52.5, resulting in the Composite index falling to 49.1, its lowest since October 2012. For the whole Union, the Manufacturing Index came in at 45.6, while Services PMI resulted at 52.0. European bond yields fell deeper into negative territory, with Germany’s 10 year bunds down 6bps to minus 0.58%. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.0995. We continue to expect support to hold on moves approaching 1.0980 while now any upward push will likely meet resistance around 1.1010.

Expected Ranges

NZD/USD: 0.6200 - 0.6400 ▲

NZD/AUD: 0.9250 - 0.9350 ▲

GBP/NZD: 1.9650 - 1.9850 ▼

NZD/EUR: 0.5675 - 0.5775 ▲

NZD/CAD: 0.8250 - 0.8450 ▲