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NZ dollar range-bound against greenback

NZD - New Zealand Dollar

It’s been a very quiet start to the week for the kiwi dollar trading in a tight 30pip range against the greenback. So far this week there have been no economic releases of note. Last week, the New York Federal Reserve President John Williams managed to roil markets when he said that central banks should act quickly to lower rates at the first sign of economic distress. We now expect trading conditions to remain quiet until the European Central Banks (ECB) policy meeting on Thursday. On the local data in New Zealand all attentions this week will be on Wednesday’s Trade balance release.

From a technical perspective, the NZD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.6756. We continue to expect support to hold on moves approaching 0.6750 while now any upward push will likely meet resistance around 0.6790.

Key Movers

The U.S. dollar was little changed overnight as traders await decisions by the U.S. Federal Reserve on how much and quickly they may reduce interest rates. The greenback has been dragged down in recent days by forecasts the Federal Reserve will likely cut U.S. interest rates for the first time in a decade, also in response to global trade tensions and weak inflation. Expectations have firmed that the Fed will start the easing cycle with a 25bps cut. Looking ahead today the US will release the May Housing Price Index, Existing Home Sales for June and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing index for July.

The EUR/USD pair has spent most of this Monday confined to a tight range around 1.1210 as market traders are anticipating more dovishness from European policymakers on Thursday. Market is expecting European policymakers will lower a key deposit rate by 10 basis points to -0.50 basis point to combat risk from global trade tensions. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.1207. We continue to expect support to hold on moves approaching 1.1180 while now any upward push will likely meet resistance around 1.1245.

Expected Ranges

NZD/USD: 0.6650 - 0.6850 ▼

NZD/AUD: 0.9500 - 0.9700 ▲

GBP/NZD: 1.8350 - 1.8550 ▼

NZD/EUR: 0.5900 - 0.6100 ▼

NZD/CAD: 0.8750 - 0.8950 ▲