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Kiwi stronger on global risk appetite

NZD - New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand dollar is higher today when valued against the Greenback, reaching an overnight high of 0.6603, on the back of broad-based greenback weakness. There were no scheduled releases yesterday (a bank holiday). Looking ahead today and we will see the release of the Overseas Merchandise Trade Index for the previous quarter, forecast up 0.5%, better than previous -3.0%. The main factor driving the New Zealand Dollar is the state of global risk appetite, especially in relation to the trade war between the U.S. and China.

From a technical perspective, the NZD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.6597. We continue to expect support to hold on moves approaching 0.6530 while now any upward push will likely meet resistance around 0.6610.

Key Movers

On the release front in the US yesterday we saw softer-than-expected US data beginning with ISM Manufacturing PMI for the month of May which resulted at 52.1, well below the 53.0 expected, and the lowest since October 2016 fuelling speculation of a possible rate cut in the US. Following the release St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said an interest rate cut “may be warranted soon,” given the rising economic risk posed by global trade tensions as well as weak U.S. inflation. Looking ahead tonight and we will see the release of US Final Services PMI and monthly Factory Orders for the month of May.

Wrapping up yesterday’s risk events and tensions are still high between the U.S and China with China now threatening to stop exports of rare-earth metals to the U.S. which are used in a wide range of technology products including battery systems, and of which China is the largest exporter.

Expected Ranges

NZD/AUD: 0.9350 - 0.9550 ▲

NZD/CAD: 0.8750 - 8950 ▲

NZD/EUR: 0.5750 - 0.5950 ▲

NZD/GBP: 0.5100 - 0.5300 ▲

USD/NZD: 0.6500 - 0.6700 ▲