The GBP was a bit firmer Thursday morning in London as investors looked forward to what’s become known as ‘Super Thursday’; a Bank of England MPC meeting with a rate announcement, published Minutes then a Press Conference to introduce the new Quarterly Inflation Report. In his appearance before a House of Lords Select Committee last week, BoE Governor Carney had hinted that the Bank was preparing to upgrade the forecasts in its Inflation Report and this is exactly what happened; albeit the language was more aggressive than had been expected. GBP/USD surged more than 1½ cents from 1.3890 to a high just over 1.4050. So far, so easy to explain…. Within the space of four hours, however, as the carnage continued in US asset markets, GBP/USD had reversed all its gains, coming back to its launching point with the precision of a Falcon-Heavy booster. GBP was still the best performer of the day although its 200+ pip gains against both the AUD and NZD were more than halved.
In revising up both its UK and world growth forecasts, the Bank of England said that, “Over the past year, a steady absorption of slack has reduced the degree to which it was appropriate for the MPC to accommodate an extended period of inflation above the target. Consequently, at its November 2017 meeting, the Committee tightened modestly the stance of monetary policy in order to return inflation sustainably to the target. Since November, the prospect of a greater degree of excess demand over the forecast period and the expectation that inflation would remain above the target have further diminished the trade-off that the MPC is required to balance. It is therefore appropriate to set monetary policy so that inflation returns sustainably to its target at a more conventional horizon. The Committee judges that, were the economy to evolve broadly in line with the February Inflation Report projections, monetary policy would need to be tightened somewhat earlier and by a somewhat greater extent over the forecast period than anticipated at the time of the November Report, in order to return inflation sustainably to the target.”
In his subsequent Press Conference, the Governor was keen to play down the scale and speed of interest rate hikes and despite much probing from journalists, refused to agree that interest rates are likely to rise in May. The Statement noted, “Any future increases in Bank Rate are expected to be at a gradual pace and to a limited extent”. Market pricing doesn’t yet have a may hike as a done deal, though the implied probability of a 25bp increase has increased from just under 50% to something nearer 70%. All this, of course, is predicated is based on two Brexit factors - that there is “a smooth transition”, and that it leads to an “average of potential outcomes”. Let’s see now what the politicians can do to facilitate this… GBP opens in Asia this morning at USD1.3925, GBP/AUD1.7845 and GBP/NZD1.9255.