Daily Currency Update

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All eyes on RBA

AUD - Australian Dollar

The Australian dollar edged marginally upward through trade on Friday, bouncing off mid-week lows at 0.6710 and closed flat at 0.6735. With little domestic data on hand the AUD took it queues from broader risk flows driven by increasing trade hostilities. The commodity led unit shrugged off increased US tariff’s with investors seemingly reluctant to extend positions ahead of this weeks RBA rate announcement and quarterly GDP print.

The AUD appears to have found support at 0.6680/0.6700 however these levels could be tested should the Reserve Bank cut rates tomorrow. There is an expectation policy makers will reduce the benchmark cash rate to 0.75% in a bid to front run further economic softness. The recent downward shift in labour market performance, reduction in consumers discretionary spending and persistent low inflation show little sign of correcting in the near term and with minimal headline data sets available between now and October meeting the RBA may prefer to cut rates in a bid to stave off further downside.

Attentions today turn to Chinese Manufacturing data ahead of tomorrow’s RBA announcement and retail sales print and Wednesday’s GDP review.

Key Movers

The Euro was the worst performer among major currencies on Friday breaking below 1.10 for the first time in over 2 years as investors position themselves for ECB policy easing throughout September. Expectations the ECB will at least cut interest rates this month coupled with Brexit uncertainties, poor domestic economic indicators and persistent Italian political uncertainty have forced investors away from the common currency. Touching 1.0967 the Euro struggled to make any meaningful upturn and remains vulnerable to further downward pressures.

Expected Ranges

AUD/USD: 0.6680 - 0.6790 ▲

AUD/EUR: 0.6000 - 0.6200 ▲

GBP/AUD: 1.7950 - 1.8200 ▼

AUD/NZD: 1.0550 - 1.0750 ▲

AUD/CAD: 0.8910 - 0.9010 ▲