It was a pretty wild week for nearly all the world’s major currencies, the one exception to this being the Australian Dollar. Indeed, AUD/USD remained on the same 78 cents ‘big figure’ for all but the very last two hours of trading on Friday evening. Its range for the past week was from a low of USD0.7807 on Tuesday to a high of 0.7922 just before the close in New York on Friday evening.
Aside from the general weakness of the US Dollar after the ECB’s pre-announcement of a change of forward guidance later in the year, the main drivers of the Australian Dollar were continued strength in gold prices and a very good set of November retail sales numbers. The yellow metal began the week at $1318 per ounce and after dipping to $1309 on Wednesday, it then rose persistently and virtually without correction up to a high of $1337 on Friday; the highest since September 10th 2017, whilst silver, platinum and aluminium all registered weekly gains.
For the week ahead as people drift back to work after the holidays, the big number to watch will be Thursday’s employment report. Consensus expectations are for a 15,000 increase in December employment after a huge 61,600 increase in November. Last time around, full-time employment increased 41,900 to 8,501,900 and part-time employment increased 19,700 to 3,901,100 although the unemployment rate remained steady at 5.4%. It is generally estimated that, over time, around 14-15k new jobs per month are enough to keep pace with demographic change and leave the unemployment rate steady though this doesn’t always hold for every individual month’s data. Ahead of this, we’ll get to see Westpac’s index of consumer confidence on Wednesday and figures on new motor vehicle sales tomorrow.
This Monday morning, the AUD opens in Asia at USD0.7915 with AUD/NZD at 1.0895 and GBP/AUD1.7340.