GBP - British Pound
Sterling could have a few volatile trading sessions as investors and traders label today Super Thursday, with various elections up and down the UK and the Monetary Policy Committee meeting. Since the last meeting, the UK economy has shown sharp improvement, influenced by a speedy vaccination campaign and the opening of hospitality/retail. Andrew Bailey, Governor of Bank of England, will likely give a more positive economic outlook however it is likely rates will be left unchanged. Sterling could receive a boost from the news.
For GBP, the Scottish parliamentary elections are certainly the one that investors will be watching. If the Scottish National Party manage to achieve a majority, the chances of a Scottish independence referendum is high. This result could negatively impact the British currency, as without Scotland, the British economy weakens.
In other news, the UK-France tension increases around fisheries. UK PM Johnson has dispatched two Royal Navy boats to protect Jersey from a feared blockade. Sterling may begin to feel the effects of the increased tension, particularly considering the lack of confidence investors have with the Brexit bill.
The key news from the US remains the comments from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on raising interest rates. Other Federal Reserve members have said they are in no way in a hurry to hike rates, however it seems investors feel that we are not being shown the full picture. The USD has climbed on the news as the media suggested the Fed will likely cave and raise rates before the initial 2023 date they suggested. Raising rates is generally positive for domestic currency, especially considering the current state of global economics. In the meantime, the US dollar could continue to trade on data releases, which includes the Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday.