GBP - British Pound
After weeks of campaigning, the day is finally here. People all over the UK will be voting between 7am-10pm to elect a PM and ultimately determine how we interact with Europe moving forward. Many have labelled the election a ‘presidential-style campaign’ due to the clear and obvious two horse race between Corbyn and Johnson. The two have locked horns on many issues however most frequently on Brexit, the future of the NHS, privatisation and consumer taxation.
Both candidates have used digital propaganda to rally support however it seems Corbyn has done extremely well on social media after various anti-Tory and pro-Corbyn hashtags have been trending across the UK. As is the case with the majority of elections, there are a number of swing constituencies that will be extremely important in the final result. A number of these lie in the north of Scotland and a number form a band across north Wales and Midlands in England.
There will be a wide trading range today as the currency market responds to exit polls/rumours and leaks. Expect GBP strength on the back of a Tory majority announcement and a GBP dip on news of a hung parliament/Corbyn victory.
The US Dollar dipped in the Thursday evening trading session after the Fed released their FOMC statement/forecast. As expected, they voted unanimously to keep rates unchanged however gave no guidance as to their interest rate journey over the next 12/18 months. However, they revised their inflationary expectation downwards for 2020 which lead to the slip in the USD and bond yields. A progression in US-China trade talks seems to be the nearest relief for the USD after talks continued on Thursday between the world’s two largest economies. GBP/EUR:
The ECB monetary policy statement is released later today at 1.30pm GMT. Additionally, expect Euro movement on the back of the UK election. A Tory majority should lead to a small surge in the European currency due to an increase in clarity around Brexit.