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Retail sales rounds off a poor week for UK fundamentals

GBP - British Pound

The monthly retail sales figure was the major release for the UK yesterday. Retail sales dropped for the month of October by 0.1 percent which was a surprise in the run-up to Christmas and shows that shoppers had become reluctant to spend in the lead up to the Brexit deadline. There was also speculation that recent declines in employment and wages growth had deterred consumers from spending on big-ticket items such as furniture and cars.

Like most of this week's data it was shrugged off. Politics is most certainly the driving force for Sterling at the moment but data this week shouldn’t be ignored. All week we have seen underperforming data and this is most definitely pointing towards a BOE rate cut.

GBP/EUR was sideways for most of the day but cable did push up by 50 points, more to do with USD weakness. Quiet on the docket today for the UK so expect some more sideways trading from the Pound.

Key Movers

The US Dollar Index which measures the strength of the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies has taken a fall as the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits rose to an unexpected five-month high. Initial jobless claims rose 14,000 to a seasonally adjusted 225,000 in the seven days ended Nov. 9. That’s the highest level since late June.

The Labor Department in the states said on Thursday its producer price index for final demand rose 0.4% last month, the biggest increase since April, after falling 0.3% in September. Lifted by gains in the costs of goods and services it cemented the view the FED will not be looking to cut rates in the near term.

Expected Ranges

GBP/EUR: 1.1640 - 1.1700 ▼

GBP/USD: 1.2840 - 1.2980 ▼

GBP/AUD: 1.8890 - 1.9000 ▲

GBP/NZD: 1.9940 - 2.0400 ▲