Daily Currency Update

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The calm before the storm?

GBP - British Pound

Yesterday saw the release of very positive UK Average Earnings data as a figure of 4% was posted against an expected 3.7%. This is the biggest pay rise that the UK has seen in the last 11 years. Despite the positive data, Sterling remained muted as investors focus predominantly on UK politics and held their current positions. Although the pound didn’t move, this is a great sign for the British economy in the midst of a global slowdown.
Mark Carney however isn’t as optimistic and claims that business investment in the UK is tracking at a 25% slower pace than it did before the 2016 British referendum. Carney continued to show his pessimism on a no-deal Brexit and predicts that inflation will rise and growth will slow if Britain departs without a deal.
On the contrary, Angela Merkel is far more optimistic and claims that despite the fact that Germany is prepared for a no-deal, there is still every chance of an orderly Brexit. Only time will tell as Johnson prepares for a crucial summit on October 17th.

Key Movers

The Euro remained fairly muted yesterday as it patiently waits for the European Central Bank’s meeting on Thursday. The meet has been labelled as once of the most important economic events of the year as it is expected the ECB will cut interest rates into the negative. The ECB decision is likely to set the tone for the Federal Reserve next week, who are also expected to cut rates.
As both of these decisions have already been priced into the market, the currency movement may not be as great as some expect. Having said this, any deviation from the expected will cause extreme swings in currency until they have once again repositioned itself to market equilibrium.
US Crude Oil Inventories will be released at 3:30pm.

Expected Ranges

GBP/USD: 1.2310-1.2415 ▲

GBP/EUR: 1.1150-1.1280 ▲

GBP/AUD: 1.7920-1.8060 ▲

GBP/NZD: 1.9195-1.9320 ▲