Daily Currency Update

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Market wobbles on inverted yield curves

GBP - British Pound

The market yesterday was rocked by worries that the global economy is heading towards a recession in a day that Germany's economy shrunk by 0.1%. This seemed to be the catalyst that saw yield curves on 2 year and 10 year treasuries invert in both the US and UK. The Dow Jones tumbled more than 700 points whilst investors poured their money in government bonds. The main takeaway from an inversion in yield curves is that this tends to be an accurate indicator for a recession, indeed the financial crisis in 2008 was preceded by an inversion in US treasuries.

The story for currencies was mixed yesterday however. The major currency crosses, EUR/USD and USD/JPY, weren't hit too much whilst the commodity currencies, the Aussie and Canadian dollars, suffered much more with the Loonie also suffering due to the drop in oil prices.

Key Movers

Of course one of the major concerns from investors (alongside the US/China trade war, slowdown in Germany and political troubles in Italy) is Brexit. The major update came from Jeremy Corbyn who has appealed to rebel Tory party members among other party leaders to elect him as a caretaker PM after a vote of no confidence in Boris Johnson in order to stop a no deal Brexit.

Expected Ranges

GBP/USD: 1.2020 - 1.2100 ▼

GBP/EUR: 1.0780 – 1.0900▼

GBP/AUD: 1.7760 - 1.7875 ▲

GBP/NZD: 1.8675 - 1.8750 ▲

GBP/CAD: 1.5940 - 1.6080 ▲