The Canadian Dollar had a very strong day on Thursday, equal top performer with the EUR. NYMEX crude which slipped a little to $59.55 on Wednesday, is this morning up at $60.25; the highest since June 2015. Brent crude futures - the international benchmark - are also up, rising 45 cents or 0.7% to $66.61 a barrel. Brent broke through $67 earlier this week for the first time since May 2015. Since the start of the year, Brent and WTI have risen by 17 and 12 percent, respectively, although the price rises from mid-2017 are much stronger, at nearly 50%.
A Reuters survey of 32 economists and analysts forecast Brent crude would average $59.88 a barrel in 2018, up from the $58.84 forecast in the previous monthly poll. US light crude was expected to average $55.78 a barrel next year, up from the $54.78 forecast in the previous monthly poll. Strong OPEC compliance with the supply pact should lend support to prices, analysts said. However, price rises will be capped by booming shale output in the United States, which is not participating in the global deal to curb production. US oil production, which has risen more than 16 percent since mid-2016, is expected to surpass 10 million bpd next year, some analysts said.
We’ve been highlighting that the technical picture has definitely shifted in the CAD’s favour after the decisive close below USD/CAD1.2760 and it will be a currency to keep a close eye on in the first few days of 2018. The Canadian Dollar opens in Europe this morning at a 10-week low (CAD stronger) of USD1.2560 with GBP/CAD at 1.6910 and EUR/CAD at 1.5015.