The first Friday of the month is of course payrolls day in the United States. What tends to get overlooked is that Canada usually releases its own labour market report at the same time. Statistics Canada reported last month that Employment was essentially unchanged in September (+10,000 or +0.1%) and the unemployment rate remained at 6.2%, matching the low of October 2008.
In the 12 months to September, employment rose by 320,000 (+1.8%), and the number of hours worked increased by 2.4%. However, after two surprise rate hikes from BoC and a sharp slowdown already underway in GDP, we should note that the trends in employment are also slowing down. Overall employment grew by only 0.2% in the third quarter, slower than the 0.6% growth rate in the second quarter and the 0.5% growth rate of the first quarter of 2017. Consensus looks for an increase of 15,000 in employment today but if there’s any disappointment, then the CAD’s gains of the last 48 hours against the USD might be difficult to sustain.
For now, USD/CAD is at 1.2806 after printing 1.29 just after GDP whilst GBP/CAD is at 1.6740; down just over 4 cents from Wednesday’s high.