Daily Currency Update

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CAD pulls back slightly after inflation report

CAD - Canadian Dollar

Demand for the Canadian dollar hit its highest level since 2015, and demand for the US dollar continued its downward slide. USDCAD was down 0.1% at 1.204 at the time of writing.

The Canadian dollar continued to outperform against commodity counterparts, buoyed by an uptick in oil prices. As Europe and the US reopens, demand for oil could keep prices up. This could help fuel further CAD gains through the medium term.

Investors are eyeing tomorrow’s Consumer Price Index, a monthly report on consumer prices. Analysts expect inflation to increase 3.2% year-over-year in April, up from 2.2% in March. That number would be above the Bank of Canada’s target range of 1% to 3%.

Key Movers

EURUSD continued to rally on US dollar weakness. The euro weathered the storm of last week's stronger US activity and economic data and the raft of Eurozone PMI information on Friday could certainly add further euro strength. EURUSD is up over 1% in the last week and 1.4% in the last month.

GBPUSD climbed over 1.421 briefly in early trading. It’s up 0.4% at 1.419 at the time of writing. Having underperformed for much of April, the pound now looks set for a period of outperformance as the UK continues its vaccination rollout. Attention now turns to Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey as he outlines a path to quantitative easing to the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee.

Despite an uptick across key commodity prices with both copper and iron ore bouncing back toward record highs, the AUD struggled to mount any real positive momentum on Monday. AUDUSD was up 0.4% at 0.779 this morning. We anticipate the AUD will remain range-bound between 0.768 and 0.78 through much of the week ahead.

The US Dollar Index tumbled to multi-month lows this morning, falling below the 90.00 mark. It’s down 0.3% at 89.81 at the time of writing.

Expected Ranges

EUR/CAD: 1.464 - 1.472 ▲

GBP/CAD: 1.703 - 1.711 ▲

AUD/CAD: 0.936 - 0.939 ▲

USD/CAD: 1.201 - 1.208 ▼