Daily Currency Update

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The Loonie trades amid deteriorating fundamentals and a quiet US dollar

CAD - Canadian Dollar

The Loonie unperformed after the release of the Spring 2019 Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey. The results of the survey fell into negative territory and came in at -0.6 versus 2.2 in the first quarter for the first time since 2016. It suggests that the BoC will be in no rush to raise rates with a risk that they move towards a neutral bias next week. The USD/CAD rose (weaker Loonie) after this survey was released, pushing the USD/CAD pair to an intraday high of 1.3403 by 3:00 pm EST during yesterday’s trading session.

The business outlook survey showed some interesting results, such as follows:
• softening in business sentiment
• marginal easing of credit conditions over the past three months
• anticipated input price growth stabilization over the next 12 months based on business expectations, and
• softened, but positive, anticipated demand for sales by firms (although several companies are less optimistic about demand).

Technically speaking, the USD/CAD might trade in a narrow range during today's session; 1.3294 provides a strong support and 1.3410 appears to be the key resistance for today's session.

Key Movers

Lender prices increased in China (in their equity prices) after the PBOC's decision to inject cash into the financial system eased concerns that officials would hold back on stimulus. Chinese banks extended 1.69 trillion Yuan ($252 billion) in new loans in March. The US dollar rallied, and the Yuan weakened. The surge in new Yuan loans implies that the Chinese central bank’s easing policies are at work. According to Shuli Ren from Bloomberg, the PBOC has done a more than an excellent job at fending off pressure to ease its policy stance.

Expected Ranges

USD/CAD: 1.3294 - 1.3410 ▼

EUR/CAD: 1.5066 - 1.5125 ▼

GBP/CAD: 1.7421 - 1.7508 ▼

AUD/CAD: 0.9562 - 0.9585 ▼

NZD/CAD: 0.9015 - 0.9075 ▼