The Loonie was the best performer of the major currencies last week, and, obviously, crude oil had its best quarter in a decade. However, traders from the big trading houses, such as Glencore, Trafigura, and Vitol, all expressed doubts that crude oil would advance much further, despite both the OPEC making massive production cuts and US sanctions reducing output from Venezuela and Iran.
The main catalyst last Friday was the Canadian GDP release by Statistics Canada, which came in better than expected at 0.3 percent compared with the forecasted 0.1 percent. The GDP year to year came in at 1.6 percent versus the reading of 1.3 percent. Of course, China's PMI data boosted risk sentiment and incentivized more buyers of crude oil and the Loonie.
This morning, Canadian manufacturers signaled another slowdown during March, with overall business conditions improving at the weakest rate for two-and-a-half years. The Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.5 in March, when the expected number was 52.8, and the previous number was printed at 52.6.
Technically speaking, the USD/CAD pair is trading at 1.3341, right at an important support level; if this level is broken, it might go to around 1.3237. An important resistance level is 1.3443.