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Markets quiet due to US Holiday.

By Jeffrey Scott

The Loonie is quiet today on low holiday volumes from the US Holiday. USD/CAD tested a new 2 week low during the early Asian trading session. Firming expectations of a July rate hike from the BoC continues to support the CAD in the near term. The market is starting to price in a 25 bpt hike this month.

The USD is mixed this morning in quiet market trading as we get into the 4th of July Holiday today. Volume is expected to be low today but it should pick up as we go into the rest of the week as we get some key data reports (ADP, ISM, Trade data, NFP and FOMC minutes). Investors will also pay attention to the market’s reaction to the US/China tariffs which starts on July 6th.

The EUR is trading flat today as EUR/USD stabilized from its recent downwards trend. Eurozone PMI was positive with Italian and German service sector picking up more than expected in June. The PMI has been trending lower since the start of 2018 so a uptick in the index is suggesting that the European growth trend might be stabilizing.

The Sterling got a mild boost after PMI data in June released better than expected. Services PMI and Composite PMI printed at 55.2 and 55.2 respectively versus expectations of 54 and 54.5. PMI data in general this week were positive, as Construction and Manufacturing all made positive gains. Analysts are predicting a 60% chance that Bank of England will tighten policy in August. THe only upcoming risk is PM May and Brexit as she will work with her cabinet towards an agreeable Brexit policy this Friday. Construction PMI data numbers were released today at 53.1 vs the forecasted 52.6. GBP/USD opens at 1.3143.

The Aussie found relief from a variety of sources that led to a nice little recovery from yearly lows against the Greenback. Initially, the catalyst was the RBA which released a notably less dovish statement, helping traders with the broader cash rate narrative. Further throughout the day, risk aversion eased across markets as trade-war concerns calmed slightly, leading to a softening of the Greenback across the board.

Aussie Retail Sales numbers released at 0.4% vs the forecasted 0.3%. Trade balance 0.83B vs the expected 1.21B. Australian Dollar’s counterpart enjoys its fourth of July holiday, giving some much-needed respite to global markets.

The NZD/USD pair is trading in a tight 30-pip range today as volume thins out with Independence Day celebrations happening in the US. Due to a lack of macroeconomic data releases in the NA session, the pair is likely to fluctuate in it’s daily range.