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Australian Dollar tests 73 US cent handle

AUD - Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar continued its upbeat mood on Tuesday opening at 0.7290. Punching through the 73 US cent handle following the latest release of Monetary Policy minutes, intraday highs were seen at 0.7342.

The RBA noted that the current downturn in economic conditions were not as severe as previously forecasted and were maintaining accommodating settings for as long as required. The board also confirmed the cash rate will not be increased till employment levels and inflation are back at their targeted range.

A positive release of Chinese data during the Asian session fuelled an uptick for the local currency during the afternoon trade as Retail Sales (+0.5%) and Industrial Production (+5.6% y/y) both exceeded expectations for the August print.
The Australian dollar opens at 0.7302 ahead of the latest CM and MI Leading Index figures due for release this morning. We expect support levels to hold on moves approaching 0.7260, while any upward push will likely meet resistance at 0.7360.

Key Movers

The USD retreated overnight against the majority of G-10 currencies as investors position themselves ahead of this evening's Federal Reserve interest rate decision. USD/JPY tested two-week lows and the US Dollar Index retreated to 95.80 overnight. There are no expectations of any change in interest rates by the Fed although markets are expecting a potential update on the dot plot for 2023.

Equities were higher fuelled by a rebound in tech stocks, the Nasdaq up 1.2% and the S&P up 0.5% on the day. Oil was also trending higher as the WTI rose 2.25%. Hurricane season arrives in the United States disrupting supply to the market.

The Great British Pound looks to have potentially set a floor this week recovering from two-month lows against the US Dollar. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s proposed law to override parts of the Brexit agreement with the EU passed through the commons overnight. Up from 1.2790 on open this week to 1.2890 overnight, continued Brexit negotiations looks to be a key driver for the Sterling again after seeing a 6% drop from the start of September.

Expected Ranges

AUD/USD: 0.7260 - 0.7360 ▲

GBP/AUD: 1.7450 - 0.7750 ▲

AUD/NZD: 1.0850 - 1.0920 ▲

AUD/EUR: 0.6120 - 0.6200 ▲

AUD/CAD: 0.9575 - 0.9650 ▲