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AUD finds support as market ignores risk off tone
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Daily Currency Update
The Australian dollar outperformed through trade on Wednesday, pushing back against recent losses to break above US$0.6450. Commodity currencies were well supported as currency markets ignored a broader risk-off mood and instead forced the USD lower amid a steady fall in treasury yields across the curve. With the USD on the back foot, the AUD found support in higher iron ore prices and stability across the Chinese yuan daily fixing. PBOC officials set a rate largely unchanged from the week’s earlier downward revision helping stabilise the yuan and limiting the negative spillover into the AUD as a proxy. Reports of increased activity across China’s steel mills help drive a 5.5% increase in iron ore prices and a break back above $115, adding a floor under the AUD at US$0.64 for the day.Our attention now turns to domestic labour market data for March. Stability across the employment landscape will give the RBA confidence in maintaining the current policy setting and may lend support to the AUD ahead of US jobless claims and commentary from 3 key Fed officials.
Key Movers
The euro was the day’s notable outperformer Wednesday up half a percent and back through 1.0650, marking session highs at 1.0670. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde paved the way for the Euro advance, suggesting there were clear signs of a euro area recovery and that the Bank was closely monitoring the exchange rate and its potential impact on the euro and inflation. While euro bonds fell, US treasuries also retreated and markets appeared content in ignoring a broader risk-off tone, forcing the USD lower against most major counterparts. UK yields rallied after a stronger-than-expected UK CPI inflation print, driven by a surprise uptick in services inflation. While Governor Bailey suggested he expected a significant correction in next month’s numbers, market pricing for BoE policy change barely shifted with a first full cut not priced in until September, leaving August an outside chance should policymakers choose to move early. Sterling edged higher against the USD, pushing back above 1.2450, yet falling short of a break above 1.25.Our focus now turns to US jobless claims and commentary from key ECB and Fed officials.
Expected Ranges
- AUD/USD: 0.6380 – 0.6500 ▲
- AUD/EUR: 0.6000 – 0.6100 ▼
- GBP/AUD: 1.9200 – 1.9500 ▼
- AUD/NZD: 1.0800 – 1.0900 ▲
- AUD/CAD: 0.8800 – 0.8900 ▲
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