Daily Currency Update

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Aussie dollar flat ahead of Fed meeting and local unemployment data

AUD - Australian Dollar

The Australian dollar tracked sideways through trade on Tuesday, maintaining a narrow range centred around resistance at 0.7750 and support on moves approaching 0.7710. Price action across financial markets was muted in general as investors appear content in maintaining the current holding pattern and brushing aside volatility across macroeconomic data sets. US retail sales and industrial production both tracked lower through February yet were ignored by investors who instead set their focus toward future optimism. Stimulus checks began arriving at homes across America this week and with Americans now flushed with cash there is an expectation the growth outlook will continue to improve.

We expect another quiet trading session today ahead of this evenings FOMC policy statement and rate update and tomorrow’s domestic labour market numbers. Another positive employment print could help drive gains above and beyond resistance and mark a push toward 0.78 US cents.

Key Movers

The dollar index was flat through trade on Tuesday despite softness across domestic retail sales, industrial production, and housing data. Consumer spending in February fell over 3%, a sharp correction off the huge surge seen in January, as wild weather and harsh winter storms forced Americans to stay at home, perhaps a good thing as the country still struggles to control the spread of COVID-19. Investors instead latched on to expectations for growth as stimulus checks began arriving at households across America.

The euro tracked below 1.19 as Europe’s vaccination roll out remains in disarray with 16 countries now suspending the AstraZeneca vaccine from their roll-out schedule. Authorities remain adamant the benefits continue to outweigh the risks as Italy and Germany are forced to introduce new social distancing measures in a bid to curtail fresh outbreaks.

With little of note to drive direction ahead of this evening’s FOMC policy announcement we expect price action to remain muted. While we anticipate the Fed will maintain the current narrative, with forecast pricing in an accommodative and neutral interest rate setting into December 2023, recent price action across bond markets and treasury yields coupled with fiscal lead growth expectations could see the timing of future rate hikes bought forward.

Expected Ranges

AUD/USD: 0.7680 - 0.7810 ▼

AUD/EUR: 0.6450 - 0.6530 ▲

GBP/AUD: 1.7780 - 1.8020 ▲

AUD/NZD: 1.0700 - 1.0800 ▲

AUD/CAD: 0.9580 - 0.9720 ▼