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AUD sees temporary dip after Westpac changes it’s house forecasts

AUD - Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar saw a dip during yesterday’s midday trading session after Westpac changed it’s forecast on the back of Governor Lowe’s speech on quantitative easing on Tuesday night. Their previous forecast was for the policy rate to fall of 0.5%, but now Westpac predicts that RBA is likely to cut interest rates twice next year, taking the cash rate to 0.25% and then introduce quantitative easing. The AUD since than has clambered up to open at 0.6777 against the USD this morning.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics will release their quarterly report on private capital expenditure just before midday today. Showing the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of new capital expenditures made by private businesses it is a leading indicator of economic health and expected to have a major impact on the AUD.

Key Movers

In the UK, a YouGov poll will release their multi-level regression poll of the UK general election. An MRP is generally accepted to be more accurate than normal polling, as it is carried out nationwide and uses a mathematical model of how various groups of people are likely to vote. The MRP model correctly predicted the 2017 UK general election result that former PM Theresa May will lose her majority and is currently showing that PM Boris Johnson is on course to secure a “significant majority” a Guardian journalist said, citing a source who has seen the poll.

We saw a plethora of data being release in the US ahead of Thanksgiving day tomorrow, with the most important of these being the Chicago PMI. This data shows the level of diffusion index based on a survey of around 200 purchasing managers in Chicago and came in at 46.3, lower than it’s forecasted rate of 47.2 indicating contraction.

In terms of other macroeconomic data, over in Canada they will be releasing their monthly GDP data just after midnight on Saturday. The data will show the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced in the economy and is the primary gauge of the economy’s health.

Expected Ranges

AUD/CAD: 0.8930 - 0.9045 ▼

AUD/EUR: 0.6080 - 0.6195 ▼

GBP/AUD: 1.8795 - 1.9285 ▲

AUD/NZD: 1.0485 - 1.0595 ▼

AUD/USD: 0.6700 - 0.6845 ▼