Daily Currency Update

Get access to our expert daily market analyses and discover how your currency has been tracking with our exchange rate tools

AUD falls in anticipation of a rate cut

AUD - Australian Dollar

The AUD fell further overnight touching a week low of 0.6745. This seems to be off the back of traders selling off the currency in anticipation of the RBA rate decision this afternoon at 2:30pm AEST. Consensus among traders is that the Reserve Bank is looking for a 25 bp cut in the cash rate to 0.75% with about 80% of the market priced in.

This cut follows it’s back-to-back ones earlier in June and July, with the notion of boosting the jobs market and following other major central banks that are also easing monetary policy. If the RBA does surprise us and not go ahead with the cut this would put upward pressure on the AUD.

The Australian Dollar opened at 0.6750 this morning against the US Dollar.

Key Movers

The US-China trade war is getting “considerably worse” according to Ian Bremmer, the president of Eurasia Group. While any rumours that the US was considering de-listing Chinese companies have been suppressed for now, both sides don’t expect a breakthrough deal to happen until after the 2020 U.S. election. Despite this, there is a stronger push to complete bilateral deals with Japan and India.

The Brexit deadline draws steadily closer, as the world awaits how UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson will fulfill his pledge to deliver Brexit on October 31st. Facing threat of dismissal by the Queen if he fails to ask for a Brexit extension, PM Johnson is under considerable pressure to deliver a deal “come what may”. While he can request a delay by October 19, some on the opposition side fear this leaves too little time to take action through courts if he tries to circumvent legislation and push a no-deal break.

In other major market news, the CAD GDP data released tonight is expected to have a major impact on the currency. Showing the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services, it is the broadest measure of economic activity and primary gauge of the economy’s health.

Expected Ranges

AUD/CAD: 0.8830 - 0.8995 ▼

AUD/EUR: 0.6130 - 0.6275 ▲

GBP/AUD: 1.8020 - 1.8350 ▲

AUD/NZD: 1.0725 - 1.0870 ▲

AUD/USD: 0.6675 - 0.6795 ▼