Daily Currency Update

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Australian dollar still pressured below 68 US cents

AUD - Australian Dollar

The Australian dollar is little changed when valued against the greenback, closing the US session at around 0.6770, after reaching a daily high of 0.6781. Yesterday on the data front we saw the release of the September preliminary Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing PMI which came in worse-than-expected at 49.4, while the Services index improved to 52.5 from 49.1, beating the market’s expectations. There are no macroeconomic releases today in Australia however the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe will give a speech tonight, which gives him a chance to push back on market pricing which puts an 80% chance of the next rate cut coming early October.

From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.6774. We continue to expect support to hold on moves approaching 0.6735 while now any upward push will likely meet resistance around 0.6800.

Key Movers

Overnight the Greenback edged higher on the back of falling global shares as euro zone equities clocked their worst day in a month after dismal business activity readings in Europe deepened fears of a looming recession there. On the release front yesterday the Euro fell over 50pips, to a low of 1.0966 against the Greenback, on the back of the September preliminary Markit PMI release which came in worse-than-expected. German Manufacturing PMI came in at 41.4 while the Services PMI came in at 52.5, resulting in the Composite index falling to 49.1, its lowest since October 2012. For the whole Union, the Manufacturing Index came in at 45.6, while Services PMI resulted at 52.0. European bond yields fell deeper into negative territory, with Germany’s 10 year bunds down 6bps to minus 0.58%. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.0995. We continue to expect support to hold on moves approaching 1.0980 while now any upward push will likely meet resistance around 1.1010.

Expected Ranges

AUD/USD: 0.6650 - 0.6850 ▼

GBP/AUD: 1.8250 - 1.8450 ▼

AUD/NZD: 1.0650 - 1.0850 ▼

AUD/EUR: 0.6050 - 0.6250 ▲

AUD/CAD: 0.8930 - 0.9030 ▼