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Australian Dollar meets resistance again

AUD - Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar made a small gain on Thursday during the Asian session touching a high of 0.6936 vs the Greenback despite some disappointing macro data releases. Australia’s Q1 private-sector capital expenditure (CAPEX) fell 1.7% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2019, missing the estimated 0.5% growth. CAPEX had increased by 2% in the final three months of 2018. Australian building approvals fell 4.7% month-on-month in April, missing the expected reading of 0.1% but improving on the 15.5% slump experienced in March. Australia has been facing its worst property market slump in 25 years, with prices declining steeply in most cities through 2018. Unfortunately, the bulls failed to push the pair higher and the AUD/USD began to descend quite rapidly just under 69c as the European and North American markets opened.

Looking forward, we see the release of Private Sector Credit which measures the change in the total value of new credit issued to consumers and businesses. With mounting fears over further escalation with the US-China trade war and the Aussie being at the mercy of this trade war we believe this may keep a lid on near-term Aussie rally. On the technical front, support sits at 0.6880 and 0.6800 with resistance at 0.6940 and 0.7000.

Key Movers

US dollar was supported by a strong bounce in US treasury yields which were mostly in line which GDP growth figures. Data released on Thursday showed that the US economic growth stood at 3.1% annualized pace during the first quarter of 2019 while initial jobless claims for the week ended May 24 resulted at 215K also matching the market's forecast.

Fed official Richard Clarida spoke at the Economic Club of New York and in his speech he reinforced market expectations that the Fed will be easing in the second half of the year. Clarida said the central bank is prepared to ease policy if it sees mounting risks to its outlook. He stressed the US economy is in a "very good place" with unemployment low and inflation muted.

The GBP/USD weakened further by persistent uncertainty related to the future of Brexit, the pair was briefly pulled under 1.2600.

Expected Ranges

AUD/USD: 0.6870 - 0.6940 ▼

AUD/EUR: 0.6150 - 0.6240 ▼

AUD/NZD: 1.0580 - 1.0640 ▲

GBP/AUD: 1.8100 - 1.8350 ▼

AUD/CAD: 0.9280 - 0.9370 ▼