The Canadian Dollar had a very strong day on Thursday, equal top performer with the EUR. NYMEX crude which slipped a little to $59.55 on Wednesday, is back within 25 cents of its recent 2 ½ year high of $59.92 this morning. Ineos said the 450,000-bpd Forties Pipeline System in the North Sea, which shut nearly two weeks ago due to a crack at a section near Aberdeen, Scotland, would be fully back in service by early January. Libyan officials said their export crude pipeline shut on Tuesday after an explosion will be repaired in a week's time. For the moment, however, supply pressures continue and the cold snap in the Northern Hemisphere which has pushed natural gas to a 3-week high has helped support crude prices too.
A Reuters survey of 32 economists and analysts forecast Brent crude would average $59.88 a barrel in 2018, up from the $58.84 forecast in the previous monthly poll. US light crude was expected to average $55.78 a barrel next year, up from the $54.78 forecast in the previous monthly poll. Strong OPEC compliance with the supply pact should lend support to prices, analysts said. However, price rises will be capped by booming shale output in the United States, which is not participating in the global deal to curb production. US oil production, which has risen more than 16 percent since mid-2016, is expected to surpass 10 million bpd next year, some analysts said.
We wrote here yesterday that the technical picture has definitely shifted in the CAD’s favour after the decisive close below USD/CAD1.2760 and it will be a currency to keep a close eye on in the first few days of 2018. For today, it opens in Asia at a near 10-week low of 1.2584.